Pennsylvania, like Caesar’s Gaul, is divided into three parts: Bustling metro Philadelphia in the East, the gritty industrial kingdom near Pittsburgh in the West and then Alabama in the middle, as Democratic strategist James Carville once famously described the area in between.
It is a mix of urban, suburban and rural communities and the state where the East meets the Midwest. That makes the Keystone State a combative battleground that was essential to the political fortunes of both parties in 2024. It will also be the go-to swing state in the 2028 presidential election.
Pennsylvania Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) was passed over for his party’s nomination for vice president in 2024, but he will be a strong contender for the presidential nod next time around. The exit poll found that he was extremely popular in his state, and we will hear from him again because he might be the right person at the right time in the right place. But he will have to work around the half-dozen other Democratic governors who will run to seek their place in the sun.
Donald Trump and the Republicans don’t need a mandate — they have Pennsylvania. It can make or break a party nationally with more electoral votes than any other swing state. This time Pennsylvania broke the Democrats.
Not only did Vice President Kamala Harris lose in Pennsylvania, but her party suffered a grievous loss with the defeat of Sen. Bob Casey, Jr., the scion of a political dynasty. Democrats lost whatever chance they had to take control of the U.S. House of Representatives when the party lost two incumbents — Reps. Susan Wild (D-Pa.) and Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.) and narrowly failed to defeat Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.).
The special political relationship between state and national dominance demands close examination of the 2024 results and a deep dive into the feelings of Pennsylvania voters. They were at the epicenter of the earthquake that buried Democratic hopes in 2024.
The thing that stands out clearly is the overwhelming sense of gloom and doom here. When people are in a fulsome mood, they rain fire and brimstone on the party in power. Therefore, the burden of proof is on the incumbent party to prove itself innocent. Democrats unfortunately failed to make their case and were found guilty by the jury.
Seven out of every ten Keystone voters were dissatisfied with the state of the nation. These unhappy voters strongly supported the Republican candidates, Trump and Senator-elect David McCormick.
The pessimism extended to the nation at large down to family finances locally. About half of the voters said their family financial situation was worse than it was in 2020 while less than a quarter said it was better. The financially disillusioned electorate strongly supported Republicans.
White voters without a college degree who made up half of the electorate here felt the pain. They supported Trump over Harris by close to a 2-to-1 ratio.
Pennsylvanians weren’t pleased that Democrats shoved economic sunshine up their backsides while it poured rain though a leaky roof onto the kitchen table. The need for an aggressive populist bottom-to-top Democratic agenda to vividly contrast with the illusionary trickle-down Trump approach is painfully obvious.
In 2022, following the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision that reversed the abortion rights guarantees provided in Roe v. Wade, abortion was an even bigger voting priority for the Pennsylvania electorate than the economy. That helped now-Sen. John Fetterman (D) win his tough campaign.
But this time around, the battlefield conditions were completely different. There was twice as much concern about the economy than there was about abortion.
Harris won the support of three-fourths of the abortion voters, but Trump won the same level of support from the many more voters who prioritized the economy. In addition, there was almost as much concern about immigration as there was about abortion, and the anti-immigration voters went bigger for the Republican nominee than abortion-rights supporters did for the Democratic presidential candidate.
Harris couldn’t convince voters that Trump’s positions on abortion and immigration made him an extremist — and Heaven knows she had the ammunition. In fact, voters were slightly more likely to believe that she, rather than Trump, had extreme views.
The shoe could be on the other foot when people here vote in the 2026 midterm and the 2028 presidential elections. Trump’s plan to raise tariffs and the GOP dream to slash Social Security and Medicare benefits will only increase economic anxieties here and in the other political battlegrounds.
The burden of proof will weigh heavily on Republicans next time. So, Democrats will need to make their case that hard pressed working families can turn to us to help them prosper. This will require a progressive populist approach that convinces voters that Democrats care more about their financial struggles than support from Wall Street and big money donors.
Brad Bannon is a Democratic pollster and CEO of Bannon Communications Research which polls for Democrats, labor unions and progressive issue groups. He hosts the popular progressive podcast on power, politics and policy, Deadline D.C. with Brad Bannon.
